Climate Price

AlphaGeo's Climate Price quantifies climate-driven EBITDA-at-Risk for publicly listed companies. It rolls AlphaGeo's asset-level Financial Impact Analytics (FIA) up to the issuer level, so equity and credit investors can see how physical climate risk flows through a company's revenues, operating costs, and valuation — expressed as a single, decomposable percentage of EBITDA.

Our approach: from asset risk to issuer risk

Top-down macroeconomic models establish that climate losses are large, but cannot say whose earnings are exposed. Bottom-up asset models pinpoint where a site floods, but stop at first-order damage — they miss how that damage rolls up through a company's operating footprint into revenues, operating costs, and valuation. Neither lens, on its own, explains why two companies with similar physical exposure can face very different financial outcomes.

Climate Price closes that gap. It identifies a company's physical footprint from public filings, and applies AlphaGeo's existing location-level analytics at the scale of the issuer. For every facility in a company's footprint, it draws on two proven, globally-available layers at that exact location:

• Climate Risk & Resilience Index (CRRI) — resilience-adjusted physical hazard exposure (heat, flood, wind, wildfire, drought).

• Financial Impact Analytics (FIA) — the translation of that exposure into financial impact across six EBITDA transmission channels.

The roll-up then proceeds in three steps:

1. Per-facility impact — combine the FIA channel rates at each location into a single facility-level EBITDA-at-Risk, scaled by the facility's asset-class vulnerability.

2. Company aggregation — weight facilities (equally, or by revenue or asset value) and aggregate into one company-level figure, preserving the channel and hazard decomposition.

3. Derived metrics — express the result as Climate VaR, incremental CapEx, insurance and insurability measures, a composite risk score, and a within-sector percentile.

Product features

• Coverage universe: Publicly listed issuers across the GICS sector taxonomy (initial universe of marquee names across Real Estate, Industrials, Utilities, Information Technology, Energy, and Communication Services; expanding)

• Geographic coverage: Global (via FIA)

• Emission scenarios: SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5

• Time horizons: 2035, 2050

Climate Price produces a single climate financial profile per issuer. Headline metrics are decomposed into the channels, hazards, and facilities that drive them.

Category	Metric	Description	Unit
Headline	EBITDA-at-Risk	Annual EBITDA exposed to physical climate risk across the company's operating footprint.	% of EBITDA
Valuation	Climate VaR (10-Year NPV Loss)	Discounted cash-flow loss versus a no-climate baseline over a 10-year hold.	% NPV loss
	Average Annual Loss (AAL)	The annualized form of Climate VaR.	% loss/yr
	Climate Valuation Discount	Enterprise-value haircut implied by the company's climate risk profile.	bps
Cost & Insurance	Incremental CapEx	Adaptation capital implied by the risk profile.	% of revenue
	Insurance Annual Increase	Climate-driven growth in insurance premiums.	annual % change
	Insurability Exposure	Share of facilities at risk of exceeding standard insurance-market thresholds.	% of facilities
Scoring & Benchmarking	Composite Risk Score	0–100 score blending EBITDA, insurance, CapEx, and insurability exposure.	0–100
	Sector Percentile	Rank within the company's GICS sector.	percentile
	Adaptation Opportunity	Share of modelled risk recoverable through adaptation CapEx, with implied ROI.	% / ratio

Channel & hazard decomposition

EBITDA-at-Risk is built from six transmission channels, split between revenue erosion and operating-cost inflation:

• Revenue channels — Operational Downtime, Operational Efficiency, Workforce Productivity

• OpEx channels — Insurance, Utility, Maintenance

Each channel is attributed across six physical hazards — extreme heat, flood (inland and coastal), wind, wildfire, and drought — so users can see not just how much EBITDA is at risk, but through which mechanism and from which hazard.

Interpreting the output

• EBITDA-at-Risk is reported as a negative percentage — the share of annual EBITDA eroded under the selected scenario. A larger negative number means greater exposure.

• Every basis point is traceable — the headline figure decomposes by facility, channel, and hazard, each tied back to a source quote in the filing.

• Every figure carries a confidence range of ±30%, reflecting uncertainty in hazard projections, facility completeness, and sensitivity calibration.

A higher headline number does not mean a company is uninvestable — it means more of its earnings sit in the path of physical climate risk, and that the adaptation and pricing-power response becomes material to the thesis.

Use cases

• Equity research and security selection

• Credit and fixed-income analysis

• Portfolio screening, construction, and stress testing

• Issuer-level regulatory disclosure (TCFD, IFRS S2, California SB 261)

See next: Methodology

• Access our methodology docs Climate Price — EBITDA-at-Risk