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# Migration Monitor

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## Overview

AlphaGeo’s **Climate Migration Forecast** estimates how flood risk changes future population trajectories across U.S. census blocks. It separates baseline demographic change from flood-driven displacement, so users can identify where flooding is likely to accelerate out-migration or slow future growth.

This product turns flood exposure into a forward-looking demographic signal. It helps users understand not just where flood risk exists, but where that risk may begin to reshape local demand, market momentum, and community stability.

## Our approach

Most population forecasts capture demographic change, but not the incremental effect of climate hazard. The Climate Migration Forecast addresses that gap by isolating the portion of future population change associated specifically with flood exposure.

This creates two distinct views: baseline population change under standard demographic assumptions, and climate-adjusted population change after accounting for flood risk. The result is a clearer signal for site selection, market screening, and long-term demand analysis.

## Product features

* **Geographic coverage:** United States
* **Spatial unit:** Census block
* **Hazard coverage:** Flood inundation
* **Forecast horizon:** 2020 to 2050
* **Scenario baseline:** SSP2 population projections

## Core outputs

The dataset includes four core outputs:

* **Baseline future change** — expected population change without flooding
* **Projected population** — climate-adjusted future population estimate
* **Projected future change** — annualized change based on the climate-adjusted forecast
* **Climate consequence** — the additional population change attributable to flood risk

These outputs let users compare natural demographic momentum with the incremental effect of flooding.

## Interpreting the forecast

The key field is **climate consequence**.

* **Negative values** mean flood risk is pushing population outcomes downward.
* **Values near zero** mean baseline demographic trends dominate.
* **Positive values** mean the area still grows despite flood risk.

A positive value does not mean the location is low risk. It means growth pressure still outweighs the flood-related drag in the model.

## Use cases

* Site selection and market screening
* Portfolio strategy and market prioritization
* Market demand analysis
* Public-sector planning and resilience investment

## See next: Methodology

* [Methodology: Climate Migration Projection Model](/methodology/methodology-docs/migration-monitor-methodology.md)


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