Climate Scenarios

What is a climate scenario?

AlphaGeo utilizes the most up-to-date climate projection guidelines set forth by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Users have the ability to toggle between the three climate change scenarios, each of which depicts a different socioeconomic "pathway," i.e., development across the 21st century.

SSP 2-4.5 - Low Emission Scenario

• update to scenario RCP4.5

• CO2 emissions hover around current levels before beginning to decline by mid-century. Socio-economic factors follow their historical trends, with no significant change. Progress toward sustainability is slow, with disparate development and income growth. Under this scenario, temperatures rise by 2.7°C by the end of the century. Challenges for adaptation: low Challenges for mitigation: low

SSP 3-7.0 - Medium Emission Scenario

• updated scenario that closes gap between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5

• Greenhouse gas emissions and temperatures keep regularly increasing, with CO2 emissions almost doubling from current levels by 2100. By the end of the century, average temperatures have risen by 3.6°C. Challenges for adaptation: medium Challenges for mitigation: medium

SSP 5-8.5 - High Emission Scenario

• updated scenario RCP8.5

• Despite the world economy experiencing rapid growth, it is propelled by fossil fuel exploitation and very energy-intensive lifestyles. By 2100, the average temperature of the planet will have risen by 4.4°C. Challenges for adaptation: high Challenges for mitigation: high

Note: Both SSPs and RCPs have numbers associated with them (e.g., RCP 4.5 or SSP5-8.5). The numbers represent the expected change in radiative forcing to the end of 2100.